By Roula Khalaf
The indicators are frightening and the state of politics alarming.
Yemen, the Arab world\\\'s poorest nation and one of its most unstable, now faces becoming the world\\\'s latest failed state.
A rebellion by a group connected to a Shia sect in the northern province of Saada is raging, jihadis are once again finding refuge in the lawlessness of Yemen, and a southern secession movement refuses to go away.
Oil, which has sustained a corrupt government, is running out and so are Yemen\\\'s water resources as aquifers are rapidly depleted. Population growth is among the highest in the world and unemployment is more than 40 per cent. In fact, the only thing which is in oversupply in Yemen is weaponry.
In spite of the combustible mix, this nation of 23m people seems to be forgotten. As Fred Halliday, an expert on Middle East affairs, remarked earlier this year, Yemen is \\\"often pushed nervously to the periphery of vision\\\".
On September 2, the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs issued an appeal for $23.7m to help the tens of thousands of people displaced by the conflict in the north. Two weeks later, not a single response had been received.
The UN\\\'s top human rights official has called on the government to investigate an air raid that might have killed 80 refugees this month. But that call, too, has not been heeded.
Though these are exactly the types of action that have fuelled the war with the Houthis, who come from the Zaydi Shia sect and whose grievances are largely political and economic, the government has portrayed the war as part of broader Shia-Sunni tensions in the Middle East.
It is a strategy that plays to Sunni neighbours\\\' paranoia about Iran, and therefore has the potential of attracting funding for Sana\\\'a to get on with its military offensive. (The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia is helping to bomb them, too.)
With the world consumed by more high-profile conflicts, it is easy to see why Yemen should slip down the international agenda.
Yet western officials admit that the country, which is located strategically between Saudi Arabia and the Gulf of Aden, could become the next Afghanistan.
\\\"Yemen is failing in slow motion but it can be speeded up,\\\" warns a senior British official. \\\"Given its strategic importance and its links across the Gulf of Aden to Somalia and Eritrea, all the factors that can lead to regional instability are there. We need to stop it.\\\"
But Britain and other governments are looking primarily to the neighbouring Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia, to fix Yemen.
Riyadh has every interest in stemming its neighbour\\\'s collapse - al-Qaeda operatives chased out of the kingdom end up in Yemen, and the Saudi and Yemeni branches of the terrorist network have now merged. Riyadh can also afford financial support.
But without drastic economic and political reform, financial assistance will be, at best, a temporary cure.
Yemen has muddled along in recent years because its wily president, Ali Abdallah Saleh, a man in power for more than 30 years, has manipulated friends and foes through an elaborate system of patronage.
The problems, however, have accumulated, and Mr Saleh\\\'s ability to buy his way out of trouble has diminished greatly.
This year has been particularly painful, as oil prices have dropped and production has slumped.
The future is bleak: oil revenues, which make up three quarters of government earnings, are likely to run out within a decade, though some of the shortfall will be made up from liquefied natural gas exports. Yemen needs outside help. But Mr Saleh also needs to help himself by recognising and addressing the country\\\'s underlying problems.
(courtesy Financialtimes)
The indicators are frightening and the state of politics alarming.
Yemen, the Arab world\\\'s poorest nation and one of its most unstable, now faces becoming the world\\\'s latest failed state.
A rebellion by a group connected to a Shia sect in the northern province of Saada is raging, jihadis are once again finding refuge in the lawlessness of Yemen, and a southern secession movement refuses to go away.
Oil, which has sustained a corrupt government, is running out and so are Yemen\\\'s water resources as aquifers are rapidly depleted. Population growth is among the highest in the world and unemployment is more than 40 per cent. In fact, the only thing which is in oversupply in Yemen is weaponry.
In spite of the combustible mix, this nation of 23m people seems to be forgotten. As Fred Halliday, an expert on Middle East affairs, remarked earlier this year, Yemen is \\\"often pushed nervously to the periphery of vision\\\".
On September 2, the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs issued an appeal for $23.7m to help the tens of thousands of people displaced by the conflict in the north. Two weeks later, not a single response had been received.
The UN\\\'s top human rights official has called on the government to investigate an air raid that might have killed 80 refugees this month. But that call, too, has not been heeded.
Though these are exactly the types of action that have fuelled the war with the Houthis, who come from the Zaydi Shia sect and whose grievances are largely political and economic, the government has portrayed the war as part of broader Shia-Sunni tensions in the Middle East.
It is a strategy that plays to Sunni neighbours\\\' paranoia about Iran, and therefore has the potential of attracting funding for Sana\\\'a to get on with its military offensive. (The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia is helping to bomb them, too.)
With the world consumed by more high-profile conflicts, it is easy to see why Yemen should slip down the international agenda.
Yet western officials admit that the country, which is located strategically between Saudi Arabia and the Gulf of Aden, could become the next Afghanistan.
\\\"Yemen is failing in slow motion but it can be speeded up,\\\" warns a senior British official. \\\"Given its strategic importance and its links across the Gulf of Aden to Somalia and Eritrea, all the factors that can lead to regional instability are there. We need to stop it.\\\"
But Britain and other governments are looking primarily to the neighbouring Gulf states, primarily Saudi Arabia, to fix Yemen.
Riyadh has every interest in stemming its neighbour\\\'s collapse - al-Qaeda operatives chased out of the kingdom end up in Yemen, and the Saudi and Yemeni branches of the terrorist network have now merged. Riyadh can also afford financial support.
But without drastic economic and political reform, financial assistance will be, at best, a temporary cure.
Yemen has muddled along in recent years because its wily president, Ali Abdallah Saleh, a man in power for more than 30 years, has manipulated friends and foes through an elaborate system of patronage.
The problems, however, have accumulated, and Mr Saleh\\\'s ability to buy his way out of trouble has diminished greatly.
This year has been particularly painful, as oil prices have dropped and production has slumped.
The future is bleak: oil revenues, which make up three quarters of government earnings, are likely to run out within a decade, though some of the shortfall will be made up from liquefied natural gas exports. Yemen needs outside help. But Mr Saleh also needs to help himself by recognising and addressing the country\\\'s underlying problems.
(courtesy Financialtimes)
