A democratic government completes a full term, to little applause
JUST weeks before an historic election, President Asif Ali Zardari, head of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), blithely moved into a mansion in Lahore built especially for him. With sprawling grounds, a reportedly bomb-proof design, a helipad and a huge swimming pool in the basement, the building is fit more for playboy parties than for affairs of state.
The palace seems to sum up the arrogance and greed that has marked Mr Zardari’s time in office. His party has not bothered to explain how it was acquired. It stands in a development built by a property tycoon with a reputation for gaining influential friends. The president’s spokesman insists it was paid for by “the Zardari family” but provides no details.
The election, which Mr Zardari announced on March 20th, is scheduled for May 11th. It is historic because it will mark the first time that a democratic government in a country prone to military coups has completed its five-year term, to be succeeded (almost certainly) by another elected government. That ought to be cause for celebration in a country where the army has so often stepped in to halt experiments in democracy. Yet the mismanagement and naked moneymaking under Mr Zardari have been such that this political milestone gets few cheers from Pakistanis.
Mr Zardari and the PPP came to power in 2008 on a wave of sympathy and hope that brought an end to Pakistan’s most recent period of military rule. During the election campaign, an Islamist suicide-bomber killed the PPP’s then leader, Benazir Bhutto. Her husband, Mr Zardari, never popular, became head of the party. He inherited a mess, which he proceeded only to make worse. Economic growth slumped and inflation rose, punishing poor Pakistanis. Chronic power shortages were not dealt with.
Meanwhile, the armed forces kept tight control of security and foreign policy, which a clownish government had no hopes of wresting from them. This left the army free to play jihadist games, favouring some militant groups while fighting others. Terrorism grew into a monster, turning most recently on the country’s minority Shia population. The Pakistani Taliban retained a grip on territory running along the border with Afghanistan. Swat, a pretty, mountainous area in north-west Pakistan, was won back from the head-chopping insurgents in 2009, but this remains Pakistan’s sole achievement in dealing with violent extremism.
Karachi, Pakistan’s main port and its economic heart, has turned into a killing zone, with on average a dozen bullet-ridden corpses turning up every day, victims of a relentless turf war among politically connected gangs. The PPP has fought on the streets of Karachi with two other political parties, the Awami National Party and the Muttahida Quami Movement, even as it has sat merrily in coalition government with them in Islamabad, the capital.
As a political operator, Mr Zardari has proved deft. His liberal-leaning party had just over a third of the seats in Parliament, yet his dealmaking kept the coalition together. Some worthy constitutional amendments devolved power, and Mr Zardari gave up the few remaining formal powers of the presidency. Yet the country was run by the prime minister only on paper; in fact, Mr Zardari stayed in charge.
Although his administration showed little interest in delivering services, it was consumed by a fight over the levers of power with two other institutions of state: the armed forces and the judiciary, which was newly independent and emboldened. The fact that the government completed its term owes much to the restraint shown by the main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, who was wary of playing into the hands of the armed forces, as he did when he was prime minister in the 1990s.
Opinion polls now put the conservative Mr Sharif well ahead of the PPP. His party looks likely to be the biggest after the May election. But almost certainly it will need to find coalition partners, especially from areas outside its Punjab heartland. With a first-past-the-post electoral system, and regional factors driving politics, Mr Sharif will not romp into office. And he will certainly find daunting challenges if he gets there.